THE SUPER BOWL AND PROP BETS
By Tony George
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THE SUPER BOWL
As of Mid-week the Broncos are favored 2.5 points and the total is set at 47. The lines are moving around a half point one way or the other each day based on daily betting action. I can assure you of some bigger moves as the weekend approaches and books scramble to balance their action. While most handicappers will not give out the Side or Total for free, myself included, I will however discuss prop bets on the moneyline that make sense.
Yes there is the wild and weird we all hear about. Heads to Tails is no better of a prop than betting red or black on the roulette wheel, 50% chance of winning that wager based on pure luck. Will a member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers remove his shirt and go shirtless during the performance, will Bruno Mars being wearing a hat to open up his halftime performance? Who cares?
I base prop bets on tangible items I can handicap. That means team or player props with some meat behind them to beast the book, and I have 4 props in this blog to consider for Super Bowl Sunday, I used odds from Bovada, you can find most these at almost any outlet or in Vegas, and here they are:
Will Wes Welker (Denver) drop a pass during the game. Yes or No.
YES at -120. Anyone been watching the hard hitting secondary and linebackers of Seattle this year? Welker does a ton of dunk and dink routes in the flat or on crossing patterns underneath, and I can assure you Seattle will be looking for those and try and separate him from the ball. A small price to pay on the moneyline for this.
Will Russell Wilson (Seattle) – Longest Pass attempt Over or Under 36.5 Yards
OVER at Even Odds – There is no doubt Jack Del Rio is going to stack the line to stop Lynch running it down their throat. This leaves some man on man coverage and with Wilson’s ability to scramble around I can see him launching a few long ones down the field and making a big play or two. And we all know Denver’s defense does give up some big plays, just ask Baltimore from last year’s playoff game with them!
BEST LONG ODDS PROP BET- Will Russell Wilson (Seattle) score a rushing TD? Yes or No
Yes +300. If Seattle is inside the 5 yard line in the red zone, Denver will be looking for RB Lynch to get the ball in this spot. I see Pete Carroll either doing a play action with 8 in the box or using Wilson’s prowess at scrambling and running to stretch it out, bootlegging it, or another run scenario to score. Well worth the stretch at +300.
Golden Tate (Seattle) Over or Under 45.5 yards receiving
OVER at -115. There is no doubt that Pete Carroll will pull out all the stops to score against the high octane Broncos, he is totally unconventional at having his offense run different schemes all year game to game. He knows Denver is loading up against the run, that is Seattle’s best weapon, the whole world knows that. Have no doubt the Seahawks will run it, but it would not surprise me in the least to see Wilson exceeding his attempts average and passing the ball to keep Denver off balance and that means Golden Tate should exceed this small number and I am taking this Over the 45.5 yards.
Here is a small sampling of real player prop bets that have some facts behind them and some theory. I have a 7 Play Super Bowl Card for Sunday with 4 Prop bets along with Side, Total and same game Tease. Best of luck this Sunday.