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NFL Week 16 - Statistical Analysis

By Tony George
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Courtesy of Joe Gavazzi -

NFL Wk #16.... Statistical Analysis from Joe Gavazzi Winning Sports Advice
102-48 ATS play any NFL team who outrushes their foe by 30+ yards in a game
103-27 ATS play any NFL team who runs the ball 30+ times in a game, if their opponent does not
101-19 ATS play AGAINST any NFL team who runs the ball 22 or less times if their opponent does not
134-26 ATS record of any NFL team who has a positive TO margin in a game
33-2 ATS record of any NFL team who has a +3 or more net TO margin in a game
131-17 ATS record of any NFL team who wins the game SU vs. opening line of 6 or less

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Miami (-2-) at Buffalo 1:00 PM EST

Miami has overcome defensive injuries, along with those in their OL, to enter today’s game on a run of 3-0 SU, 5-0 ATS. Those wins have included outright upsets of the Jets, the Steelers, and the Patriots. They’ve also come while this Miami team was “hunting” a playoff spot. Now that that has become a potential reality, the psychology switches with playoff pressure becoming a meaningful factor. Last week, Miami, in a net 0 turnover game, got a 24-20 victory against New England, despite being outgained by 75 yards. The Bills went for 198 overland against the Jags in recording a rare win. That sets up a situation that gives pause to the strength of this selection. You see, the Bills are 0-8 ATS following their last 8 wins.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) 1:00 ET

All the squares will be flocking to Kansas City “need” this week against an Indianapolis team who has already clinched their division. In the entire history of the NFL, inflated lines like this have proven they are dangerous to your bankroll. The public is now enamored with a KC team that has scored 101 points the last two weeks. A closer inspection of last week’s 56-31 victory at Oakland shows that KC was outrushed 130-78, but took advantage of a +6 TO margin. The reality is that following their 9-0 SU start against sub .500 teams, the Chiefs went 0-3 SU ATS in losing to .500 or better teams Denver (twice) and San Diego. Far prefer a Colts team who will be playing loose following their clinching 25-3 home victory vs. Houston. Concerns are their lack of offensive efficiency without WR Wayne and the fact that the Colts have allowed an average of 33 PPG in their previous 4 road outings.

Denver (-10) at Houston 1:00 PM EST

This will clearly be the public’s favorite game of the day. Everyone will expect QB Manning and the Broncos to bounce back now that divergent results of last week have left them tied with the Chiefs, and at risk of playoff positioning against New England. A closer look at the Denver log, however, shows us that fortunes have turned for the Broncos following their 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS start. In fact, since that time, they have gone just 2-2 SU ATS. Only once since their bye week November 3rd have they won a game by more than 10 points. Furthermore, in 6 road starts only once have they won by more than 8 points. There is little doubt that Houston is the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. Expected to contend for the Super Bowl, they enter today on a 12 game losing streak and a 2-11 ATS record. That’s when it’s time for you and I, along with the Lone Ranger, to step in with the value on the contrary play of the week.

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