NFL Wildcard Games - Tease your way to profits
By Tony George
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Here we go, the stage is set, NFL Playoff action
this weekend and some great scenario's to consider, but in my past experiences, the wishes of the fans and the general public rarely come to fruition. Last year the wild card team favorites went 4-0 ATS , and underdogs in the wild card rounds the past 2 years have went a wallet draining 1-7 ATS. So laying short points or points in general look like a good prop. But as always trends reverse and the smarter way to look at this weekends games would be to manipulate the lines.
I will borrow a stat here I saw in a publication:
Wildcard Playoff Games since 1978
1-3 Point Dogs are 27-19-2 ATS
Home dogs are 13-5 ATS
There are some very short lines this weekend with the exception of Cincy who is laying a touchdown. As always in betting, the VALUE IS IN THE NUMBER. As I always preach, in the NFL, and any sport for that fact, you are betting Numbers, not games.
To add value to that philosophy, 2 Team 6 Point Teasers give you an advantage against the line, especially in the post season. Side and Total!
Lets look at two scenario's in both these cases that give you value: (and remember you can combine a side and total together in a teaser as well)
Side Play Teaser Value
Kansas City adding 6 points gives you them at +8 - A solid value with a good team hell bent on revenge and having Jamal Charles running around, one of the top yardage offensive players in the NFL, and a defense that is capable. Throw that in with Cincy and tease them down to -1, against a Charger team who backed in here by default and help from the refs last week, whose secondary if Dalton shows up at all should get shredded in this game, and we all know Cincy at home destroys people.
Totals Play Value
Yes, Saints and Eagles will score points, NO DOUBT ABOUT IT! Take that total of 53.5 and tease it down to 47.5 and take the OVER. Heck, The Eagles let Kyle Orton look like Joe Montana last week in a win, and we know both these teams strength is offense. Then take the total of 47 in the Green Bay - San Fran game and tease it UP to 53 and take the under. San Fran's defense should shut down Green Bays offense, and with game time temps of 4 degrees, and both teams wanting to run it, especially San Fran with Frank Gore, this Under at a raised line value is a solid value.
There is more than 1 way to skin a cat so to speak, and Teasers adding value to a tight line is one way of looking at and wagering the NFL Playoffs. These are just two examples.